The GOP has Michael Jordan Syndrome

We all get caught up in greatness.  It is here for brief shining moments and it is gone just as suddenly as it had appeared.  These are the people who change the game and make all of us take note.  

In the National Basketball Association this was done by Chicago Bulls forward Michael Jordan.  Everyone who loves basketball has seen footage of “Air Jordan” leaping from the free throw line, hanging in the air for what seemed like minutes, and hitting big shots late in crucial games.  Jordan left the game viewed as the greatest player to ever pick up a basketball.  After leaving the game commentators have been looking for the next Michael Jordan.  This label has made the likes of Kobe Bryant, Penny Hardaway, LeBron James, and now Derrick Rose have been compared to him at the prime moment in their careers and they have all fallen short.  No one can truly fill the void of greatness.

Just as a young Michael Jordan was starting his career at the University of North Carolina the Republican Party was on the path to greatness as well.  The elder statesman Ronald Reagan was inaugurated in the same year as Jordan began his career at UNC.  President Reagan to many Republicans/Conservatives is the greatest president of the modern era.  He brought down Soviet Communism, he brought America back to greatness, and brought Americans together under his presidency.  Many pundits on television are trying to crown the next Ronald Reagan or describing candidates as Reagan-like.  These are unrealistic and unfair comparisons.  It puts  unrealistic pressures on the candidates to live up to his moniker.  

You cannot replicate excellence or greatness to believe so is foolish.  

Pundits and politicos must recognize that it is time to create the next hero.  We cannot continue to press unrealistic comparisons on candidates.  The pressure and expectations can derail a candidate or put unneeded pressure in our general election season of 2012 and beyond.  We cannot continue to look to the past for how a candidate should be when we have many of our own superstars in this age that bring their own special set of skills to the table can perform at a great level.  

Great is not excellence but excellence happens so rarely that we are forced to take notice and wish it would come back.  Excellence is going to occur again with or without these questions.  We just have to wait patiently.  

Mitch Daniels Says No

Another favored son of the Grand Ole Party has declined running for the Presidency of the United States in 2012.  Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana, has stated in an email last night that he will not be running.

The candidates who have stated they are not running are: Gov. Mike Huckabee, Gov. Chris Christie, Gov. Rick Perry, Rep. Paul Ryan, American business mogul Donald Trump, Sen. John Thune, Sen. Jim DeMint, Gov. Mitch Daniels, and Sen. Marco Rubio and I'm sure there are some I'm forgetting.

The list of those running or with exploratory committees is much shorter.  Those with intentions of running are: Fmr. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Gov. Gary Johnson, Sen. Rick Santorum, Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Rep. Ron Paul, American businessman Herman Cain, and Gov. Mitt Romney.

So who benefits from the new disappearance of another big name in the 2012 race?

I say this race comes down to two distinct groups. Pro-Romney and Anti-Romney.

There are those who look forward to the Romney candidacy and those who look at this potentiality as something to fear for the sake of the party.  With more and more established candidates walking away or committing gaffes it looks like the establishment could be stuck with a polarizing figure.

So after the establishment got on their hands and knees to try to get Mitch into the race it is safe to assume that Romney isn't going to get the kind of support Daniels would have gotten.  So these are establishment types who are looking to funnel resources into defeating Mitt Romney.

Who picks up support?

Newt Gingrich: Depending on how long Newt stays in the race he's the last establishment choice for the presidency.  Unfortunately Newt has appeared to have gotten out of the box slower than the so-called no name candidates.  No Republican has come to his defense since his attack on Paul Ryan's budget.  I don't see Newt sticking around long enough without further gaffes to gain much from the Mitch Daniels exit.

Gary Johnson: The little known governor continues to poll poorly.  The lone bump I see from the Daniels exit in his campaign is the social issues truce.  Johnson as one of the two libertarian minded candidates stands to benefit from the group of candidates who ignore social issues going from three down to two.

Rick Santorum: The former Pennsylvania Senator is an established former politician but is a hard core social conservative.  He may get a slight bump with the drop of an established candidate.  This will likely be cancelled out by the bumps to other candidates.

Ron Paul: The better known of the libertarian candidates stands to get a better increase than his counterpart Gary Johnson because he has better notoriety.  However the establishment money and the anti-Romney brigade aren't libertarians or libertarian-leaning so look for a better increase than the above candidates but no great.  Probably within the margin of error.

Herman Cain: The prominent Georgia businessman announced his candidacy yesterday and has been surging in the polls since his dominant performance in the first GOP Debate where he was largely viewed as the overwhelming victor.  Cain stands to benefit for those who looking for the strongest public speaker and can dominate a stage.  He won't get the establishment money but he will get some anti-Romney money because he's a candidate who continues to gain serious consideration.  He was the strongest speaker at the May 5th debate and could cost the next guy a good deal of funding.

Tim Pawlenty: T-Paw will formally announce on Monday.  He has been stated time and time again as the anti-Romney candidate.  He has an excellent record as governor (like Daniels), and the anti-Romney backers will look closer at Pawlenty because he has the best record of those viewed with a legitimate chance to win the election (at least according to George Will).  He could in the foreseeable future benefit the most from these backers.  However Cain may see an equal raise in his numbers because of how Cain overshadowed Pawlenty in the first debate.

This of course is all tentative on whether or not a big name comes out of the woodwork.  There's always a dark horse.  However, this dark horse may be stuck at the stable until 2016.

Thanks to The Daily Caller and Alexis Levinson for the original article.

The Death of Garret FitzGerald

I know that the biggest news around the world today would be President Obama's remarks on Israel.  However because of my recent course of Irish politics and my love for the Republic of Ireland the biggest news to me was the death of former Taoiseach Garret FitzGerald.


FitzGerald was one of the characters that seems to always compose Irish politics.  He had a PhD and was the typical professorial candidate.  At the time he was the complete antithesis of Fianna Fail leader Charlie Haughey.  Haughey was the man comfortable being the politician and FitzGerald was far more comfortable in the front of a lecture hall.   


He was a member of the Fine Gael Party a center-right party in Ireland (Ireland is blessed to have two center-right parties dominate the conversation).  Garret had an unusual start to his political career with being elected to the much weaker Irish Senate (Seanad Éireann).  He was elected to the Dail just four years later.  Then another four years later Fine Gael would enter into coalition government with the Labour Party.  


In the Taoiseach (or Prime Minister) phase of his political career he would go head to head with Charlie Haughey of Fianna Fail.  Haughey was a political powerhouse with great communication skills.  The intellectual FitzGerald would have two terms as Taoiseach, one from June 30, 1981 - March 9, 1982 and his second from December 14, 1982 - March 10, 1987.  


After leaving the Dail in 1992 he would retire to write op-eds and get his voice out there.  Dr. FitzGerald will have a special part in Irish history and will be remembered.  


RIP Dr. Garret FitzGerald 1926-2011  

Donald Trump: Media Master

Donald Trump fires himself

We all knew it deep down.  We knew that Donald Trump was playing the media into higher Apprentice ratings.  We knew that the Republican field is so weak and early polling is so based on name recognition that The Donald would perform well.  We still fell for it.

The idea of Donald Trump was just so promising to Republican voters.  He's a strong public speaker, he's a successful businessman, and he was making himself to be the most anti-Obama candidate.

When Trump crashed the Conservative Political Action Conference he gave what looked to have been a campaign style speech.  The room exploded with excitement, he received several standing ovations, and people were buzzing with excitement over a Trump run for the rest of the conference.  His poll numbers skyrocketed on the back of the "birther" issue and he used that issue to gain media time.

Donald Trump was all over the news for the next few months stating he will have an announcement regarding the race for the presidency in 2012.  He kept building up time on major media outlets who began to give his campaign credibility.  This credibility and media blitz led to ratings increases for The Apprentice.  Trump stumped in Iowa and New Hampshire and spoke at a Tea Party rally in Florida this past April.

The last two times he toyed with the idea of running he quickly dismissed the notion, this time he held on longer to make it look more convincing.  He played the media and he played us.  At least in 2015 he will be far too old to make this case again.  His hair may be another story.

Thanks to the Daily Caller and Jeff Winkler for the original article.