Yesterday, American businessman and Republican Presidential candidate Herman Cain announced that he was suspending his campaign to seek the Republican nomination. His campaign had been mercilessly attacked by the website POLITICO (which has subsequently experienced far less traffic as they have been exposed as left-wing) and members of the media regarding his alleged sexual harassment. Ginger White also claimed to have had a thirteen year affair with the former CEO.
Herman Cain had been a Tea Party favorite known for his 9-9-9 Plan and his extraordinary ability as an orator. Having seen the damage these allegations had done to his campaign he elected to move aside. He did state that he will be endorsing a candidate soon which I expect to be Speaker Gingrich.
Out of every negative aspect of this Republican Campaign there must be a bright spot. As the businessman steps aside his support must go somewhere. Based on the actions of the candidate and current polling data we can safely assume where this support will be going.
Based on the debate performances and public statements of Herman Cain that his vocal support will go to the fellow Georgian Newt Gingrich. The two have been very complimentary of one another even while going after their rivals. There support for one another trickles down to their supporters. In a recent Quinnipiac Poll the majority of Cain supporters move to the former Speaker. The Right's ideas man seems to be the logical choice to gain the support of Cain's remaining supporters.
Should Gingrich receive the majority of Cain's support. This could put the Gingrich surge further ahead of Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Nationally Newt has 26.6% of the support according to the Real Clear Politics Average of polls. The most recent poll done had Gingrich as high as 38%, 21 points over Romney, and has won the last five straight national polls. This could put him at Rick Perry levels before the Texas Governor began speaking.
This works on the state level as well. Newt has a firm hold in Iowa being the only candidate polling over 20% consistently. Cain still had about 12% left in Iowa those followers will undoubtedly move Gingrich farther away from the pack. He currently holds a 10% lead in the first in the Nation caucus.
In New Hampshire Newt has moved up quickly on Romney. During the 2008 primary Romney had a similar lead and it began to crumble away as an alternative comes around. Speaker Gingrich has already earned the endorsement of leading New Hampshire newspaper the Manchester Union Leader. The paper's editorial page has been ruthless toward the former Massachusetts Governor. While Cain was only polling in the single digits it is important to mention that Gingrich has started his run on Romney much earlier than Senator John McCain did.
Barring a Governor Perry style collapse Speaker Gingrich will more than likely become the Republican nominee.
