According to a recently released CNN Poll former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney still has the lead in the GOP Primary. Unfortunately for Governor Romney his once insurmountable lead has vanished and has four big time contenders to deal with all within the margin of error.
The first three are all candidates or potential candidates that you would expect: Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin, and Congresswoman Michele Bachmann. All part of the conservative anti-Romney group. Congresswoman Bachmann is already in the race and posing a real threat to Romney in Iowa, it is almost official that Governor Perry is in according to Real Clear Politics, and Governor Palin whom I believe will not attempt to seek the Republican nomination this time through.
The shock comes from former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. It appears as though now moderates now have a secondary option to Romney. Mayor Giuliani has been seen in New Hampshire and has stated that he has interest in getting back into national politics if the field doesn't feel right to him. Giuliani's strong performance shocked me in two ways.
1) Romney does not have as strong support in the moderate class as people originally thought.
2) Giuliani's supporters have mostly stuck around after his disappointing campaign strategy of 2008.
Rudy appears to be garnering support from independents (53%) and Republicans (55%) along with moderates (61%) and conservatives (50%). The one area where Giuliani falters a little is in Tea Party support where only 46% support the idea of him running. Still a number much higher than would have been expected.
Rudy is going to have to prove he's serious in New Hampshire before I feel comfortable with him again. As a former supporter in 2008 I don't want to be fooled with a lazy campaign strategy again. If Giuliani can pull off a win in New Hampshire America's Mayor may be in far better shape than he was in 2008 when he was the favorite every one was chasing.
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