Cain's Loss is Newt's Gain

Yesterday, American businessman and Republican Presidential candidate Herman Cain announced that he was suspending his campaign to seek the Republican nomination. His campaign had been mercilessly attacked by the website POLITICO (which has subsequently experienced far less traffic as they have been exposed as left-wing) and members of the media regarding his alleged sexual harassment. Ginger White also claimed to have had a thirteen year affair with the former CEO.

Herman Cain had been a Tea Party favorite known for his 9-9-9 Plan and his extraordinary ability as an orator. Having seen the damage these allegations had done to his campaign he elected to move aside. He did state that he will be endorsing a candidate soon which I expect to be Speaker Gingrich.

Out of every negative aspect of this Republican Campaign there must be a bright spot. As the businessman steps aside his support must go somewhere. Based on the actions of the candidate and current polling data we can safely assume where this support will be going.

Based on the debate performances and public statements of Herman Cain that his vocal support will go to the fellow Georgian Newt Gingrich. The two have been very complimentary of one another even while going after their rivals. There support for one another trickles down to their supporters. In a recent Quinnipiac Poll the majority of Cain supporters move to the former Speaker. The Right's ideas man seems to be the logical choice to gain the support of Cain's remaining supporters.

Should Gingrich receive the majority of Cain's support. This could put the Gingrich surge further ahead of Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Nationally Newt has 26.6% of the support according to the Real Clear Politics Average of polls. The most recent poll done had Gingrich as high as 38%, 21 points over Romney, and has won the last five straight national polls. This could put him at Rick Perry levels before the Texas Governor began speaking.

This works on the state level as well. Newt has a firm hold in Iowa being the only candidate polling over 20% consistently. Cain still had about 12% left in Iowa those followers will undoubtedly move Gingrich farther away from the pack. He currently holds a 10% lead in the first in the Nation caucus.

In New Hampshire Newt has moved up quickly on Romney. During the 2008 primary Romney had a similar lead and it began to crumble away as an alternative comes around. Speaker Gingrich has already earned the endorsement of leading New Hampshire newspaper the Manchester Union Leader. The paper's editorial page has been ruthless toward the former Massachusetts Governor. While Cain was only polling in the single digits it is important to mention that Gingrich has started his run on Romney much earlier than Senator John McCain did.

Barring a Governor Perry style collapse Speaker Gingrich will more than likely become the Republican nominee.

America's Mayor Within Striking Distance

According to a recently released CNN Poll former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney still has the lead in the GOP Primary. Unfortunately for Governor Romney his once insurmountable lead has vanished and has four big time contenders to deal with all within the margin of error.

The first three are all candidates or potential candidates that you would expect: Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin, and Congresswoman Michele Bachmann. All part of the conservative anti-Romney group. Congresswoman Bachmann is already in the race and posing a real threat to Romney in Iowa, it is almost official that Governor Perry is in according to Real Clear Politics, and Governor Palin whom I believe will not attempt to seek the Republican nomination this time through.

The shock comes from former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. It appears as though now moderates now have a secondary option to Romney. Mayor Giuliani has been seen in New Hampshire and has stated that he has interest in getting back into national politics if the field doesn't feel right to him. Giuliani's strong performance shocked me in two ways.

1) Romney does not have as strong support in the moderate class as people originally thought.

2) Giuliani's supporters have mostly stuck around after his disappointing campaign strategy of 2008.

Rudy appears to be garnering support from independents (53%) and Republicans (55%) along with moderates (61%) and conservatives (50%). The one area where Giuliani falters a little is in Tea Party support where only 46% support the idea of him running. Still a number much higher than would have been expected.

Rudy is going to have to prove he's serious in New Hampshire before I feel comfortable with him again. As a former supporter in 2008 I don't want to be fooled with a lazy campaign strategy again. If Giuliani can pull off a win in New Hampshire America's Mayor may be in far better shape than he was in 2008 when he was the favorite every one was chasing.

Fox News Double Standard With Governor Palin

In early March the now embattled News Corp, which owns Fox News, suspended the contracts of contributors Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich as they considered runs for the Presidency. This move was largely received as good move for the journalistic integrity of the network. This way the network would not appear to be favoring some candidates and not others.

So why has News Corp not suspended the contract of former Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin?

Governor Palin has made it clear that she does not know whether or not she will seek the Republican nomination in the upcoming Presidential primaries. Governor Huckabee made it clear he would not and was able to continue working for the network. Either the network knows and will not tell us or is continuing to give Governor Palin free press as a sign of contributing to her campaign.

Fox included Palin in it's newest round of Republican polling for the nomination. The governor tied with current member of the House of Representatives Ron Paul with 9%. Either Fox knows Governor Palin will run and has allowed her to maintain her role in a clear case of favoritism and bias, she has not informed them (which should still result in suspension), or they are skewing polling data by including a candidate who they know is not running.

Governor Palin should be expected to follow the same guidelines as other contributors. Either Governor Palin should let her plans be known or she should be suspended by News Corp.

Donald Trump: Media Master

Donald Trump fires himself

We all knew it deep down.  We knew that Donald Trump was playing the media into higher Apprentice ratings.  We knew that the Republican field is so weak and early polling is so based on name recognition that The Donald would perform well.  We still fell for it.

The idea of Donald Trump was just so promising to Republican voters.  He's a strong public speaker, he's a successful businessman, and he was making himself to be the most anti-Obama candidate.

When Trump crashed the Conservative Political Action Conference he gave what looked to have been a campaign style speech.  The room exploded with excitement, he received several standing ovations, and people were buzzing with excitement over a Trump run for the rest of the conference.  His poll numbers skyrocketed on the back of the "birther" issue and he used that issue to gain media time.

Donald Trump was all over the news for the next few months stating he will have an announcement regarding the race for the presidency in 2012.  He kept building up time on major media outlets who began to give his campaign credibility.  This credibility and media blitz led to ratings increases for The Apprentice.  Trump stumped in Iowa and New Hampshire and spoke at a Tea Party rally in Florida this past April.

The last two times he toyed with the idea of running he quickly dismissed the notion, this time he held on longer to make it look more convincing.  He played the media and he played us.  At least in 2015 he will be far too old to make this case again.  His hair may be another story.

Thanks to the Daily Caller and Jeff Winkler for the original article.