How The Base Can Have It All

Ever since the Republican field for the Presidency solidified a plurality of voters have been dissatisfied with the individuals running. The base has been teased only to be let down by the likes of Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, and Paul Ryan amongst others. The violent roller coaster of highs and lows for the candidates can be attributed to the desire for a conservative candidate to run against President Obama and the undying unpopularity of Mitt Romney.

The GOP Primary has been hectic and has provided us with three separate candidates winning primaries and a fourth is consistently putting a scare in open primaries and caucuses. With the Santorum Trifecta of the past week, Ron Paul came close to getting off the schnide in Maine, Newt Gingrich campaigning hard in Super Tuesday states, and the Mitt Romney money machine we could have a shot at something special.

For the first time since 1976 the Republican Party could have a brokered convention because not one candidate will have the necessary majority to win on the first ballot. Now states decide how many ballots have to occur before a delegate is free to vote for other candidates. This typically lasts until the third ballot. This could open up the opportunity to draft someone new into the field.

I'm going to borrow a couple of phrases here from Rush Limbaugh and Sarah Palin. If you are unsatisfied with the current group of candidates and you don't like their odds against President Obama rage against the machine. Annoy the establishment and keep the process going all the way until Tampa.

We found out last year that Operation Chaos may have helped Obama. The longer the primary drew out the better prepared these candidates were for the general election. Why not try this strategy this time through? What can we lose by trying this? Maybe we'll have to get by with the field that hasn't inspired us. Or maybe we can draw a new face into the fray that inspires the base the way George Bush did instead of the way John McCain did.

Just remember the old adage about getting everything you want.

America's Mayor Within Striking Distance

According to a recently released CNN Poll former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney still has the lead in the GOP Primary. Unfortunately for Governor Romney his once insurmountable lead has vanished and has four big time contenders to deal with all within the margin of error.

The first three are all candidates or potential candidates that you would expect: Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin, and Congresswoman Michele Bachmann. All part of the conservative anti-Romney group. Congresswoman Bachmann is already in the race and posing a real threat to Romney in Iowa, it is almost official that Governor Perry is in according to Real Clear Politics, and Governor Palin whom I believe will not attempt to seek the Republican nomination this time through.

The shock comes from former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. It appears as though now moderates now have a secondary option to Romney. Mayor Giuliani has been seen in New Hampshire and has stated that he has interest in getting back into national politics if the field doesn't feel right to him. Giuliani's strong performance shocked me in two ways.

1) Romney does not have as strong support in the moderate class as people originally thought.

2) Giuliani's supporters have mostly stuck around after his disappointing campaign strategy of 2008.

Rudy appears to be garnering support from independents (53%) and Republicans (55%) along with moderates (61%) and conservatives (50%). The one area where Giuliani falters a little is in Tea Party support where only 46% support the idea of him running. Still a number much higher than would have been expected.

Rudy is going to have to prove he's serious in New Hampshire before I feel comfortable with him again. As a former supporter in 2008 I don't want to be fooled with a lazy campaign strategy again. If Giuliani can pull off a win in New Hampshire America's Mayor may be in far better shape than he was in 2008 when he was the favorite every one was chasing.

Fox News Double Standard With Governor Palin

In early March the now embattled News Corp, which owns Fox News, suspended the contracts of contributors Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich as they considered runs for the Presidency. This move was largely received as good move for the journalistic integrity of the network. This way the network would not appear to be favoring some candidates and not others.

So why has News Corp not suspended the contract of former Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin?

Governor Palin has made it clear that she does not know whether or not she will seek the Republican nomination in the upcoming Presidential primaries. Governor Huckabee made it clear he would not and was able to continue working for the network. Either the network knows and will not tell us or is continuing to give Governor Palin free press as a sign of contributing to her campaign.

Fox included Palin in it's newest round of Republican polling for the nomination. The governor tied with current member of the House of Representatives Ron Paul with 9%. Either Fox knows Governor Palin will run and has allowed her to maintain her role in a clear case of favoritism and bias, she has not informed them (which should still result in suspension), or they are skewing polling data by including a candidate who they know is not running.

Governor Palin should be expected to follow the same guidelines as other contributors. Either Governor Palin should let her plans be known or she should be suspended by News Corp.

Anti-TSA Bill May Bring Perry Into Contention

Governor Rick Perry of Texas has added an anti-TSA search bill to the Texas state legislature's calendar.  This move will play very well to a Republican base Perry may be trying to court as he prepares to test the waters for the Republican Primaries.

A few weeks ago while Perry was still flat out denying any interest in the Oval Office he removed the bill from the agenda of the Texas Legislature's Special Session.  Perry cited a lack of votes to get the bill passed in his decision.  Added pressure was applied by the federal government when a letter was sent to the Texas legislature claiming air traffic to Texas would be limited if the law was passed.

Now the buzz around Perry has becoming a deafening roar for the Texas Republican to enter the Presidential fray.  He has advisers sprinting away from former House Speaker Newt Gingrich including two more today from Newt's fundraising office.  He has an appeal to the Christian Right in his upcoming day of prayer for the United States and his strong pro-life stance and policies.  Texas has created more jobs than the rest of the United States combined and has people coming in droves to the Lone Star State.  Hell he's even authored a book entitled Fed Up! about recent government overreach into state's matters.

The big name Republican backers are waiting to see if Perry or former Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin jump into the race.  My money says Palin will not run and wait for an opening in the White House in 2016.  So the big money is out there for Perry to take advantage.  People are waiting to establish a conservative candidate to oppose front-runner former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

When the Republican Party needs a candidate that can win elections and needs to unify the party they go to their oil-well.  The Lone Star State.  This anti-TSA bill will be more than enough to draw Governor Perry into the race and may even put him ahead of Governor Romney.

This bill will give Perry more than enough momentum to carry the field and headlines if he so chooses.