Mitch Daniels Says No

Another favored son of the Grand Ole Party has declined running for the Presidency of the United States in 2012.  Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana, has stated in an email last night that he will not be running.

The candidates who have stated they are not running are: Gov. Mike Huckabee, Gov. Chris Christie, Gov. Rick Perry, Rep. Paul Ryan, American business mogul Donald Trump, Sen. John Thune, Sen. Jim DeMint, Gov. Mitch Daniels, and Sen. Marco Rubio and I'm sure there are some I'm forgetting.

The list of those running or with exploratory committees is much shorter.  Those with intentions of running are: Fmr. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Gov. Gary Johnson, Sen. Rick Santorum, Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Rep. Ron Paul, American businessman Herman Cain, and Gov. Mitt Romney.

So who benefits from the new disappearance of another big name in the 2012 race?

I say this race comes down to two distinct groups. Pro-Romney and Anti-Romney.

There are those who look forward to the Romney candidacy and those who look at this potentiality as something to fear for the sake of the party.  With more and more established candidates walking away or committing gaffes it looks like the establishment could be stuck with a polarizing figure.

So after the establishment got on their hands and knees to try to get Mitch into the race it is safe to assume that Romney isn't going to get the kind of support Daniels would have gotten.  So these are establishment types who are looking to funnel resources into defeating Mitt Romney.

Who picks up support?

Newt Gingrich: Depending on how long Newt stays in the race he's the last establishment choice for the presidency.  Unfortunately Newt has appeared to have gotten out of the box slower than the so-called no name candidates.  No Republican has come to his defense since his attack on Paul Ryan's budget.  I don't see Newt sticking around long enough without further gaffes to gain much from the Mitch Daniels exit.

Gary Johnson: The little known governor continues to poll poorly.  The lone bump I see from the Daniels exit in his campaign is the social issues truce.  Johnson as one of the two libertarian minded candidates stands to benefit from the group of candidates who ignore social issues going from three down to two.

Rick Santorum: The former Pennsylvania Senator is an established former politician but is a hard core social conservative.  He may get a slight bump with the drop of an established candidate.  This will likely be cancelled out by the bumps to other candidates.

Ron Paul: The better known of the libertarian candidates stands to get a better increase than his counterpart Gary Johnson because he has better notoriety.  However the establishment money and the anti-Romney brigade aren't libertarians or libertarian-leaning so look for a better increase than the above candidates but no great.  Probably within the margin of error.

Herman Cain: The prominent Georgia businessman announced his candidacy yesterday and has been surging in the polls since his dominant performance in the first GOP Debate where he was largely viewed as the overwhelming victor.  Cain stands to benefit for those who looking for the strongest public speaker and can dominate a stage.  He won't get the establishment money but he will get some anti-Romney money because he's a candidate who continues to gain serious consideration.  He was the strongest speaker at the May 5th debate and could cost the next guy a good deal of funding.

Tim Pawlenty: T-Paw will formally announce on Monday.  He has been stated time and time again as the anti-Romney candidate.  He has an excellent record as governor (like Daniels), and the anti-Romney backers will look closer at Pawlenty because he has the best record of those viewed with a legitimate chance to win the election (at least according to George Will).  He could in the foreseeable future benefit the most from these backers.  However Cain may see an equal raise in his numbers because of how Cain overshadowed Pawlenty in the first debate.

This of course is all tentative on whether or not a big name comes out of the woodwork.  There's always a dark horse.  However, this dark horse may be stuck at the stable until 2016.

Thanks to The Daily Caller and Alexis Levinson for the original article.