How The Base Can Have It All

Ever since the Republican field for the Presidency solidified a plurality of voters have been dissatisfied with the individuals running. The base has been teased only to be let down by the likes of Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, and Paul Ryan amongst others. The violent roller coaster of highs and lows for the candidates can be attributed to the desire for a conservative candidate to run against President Obama and the undying unpopularity of Mitt Romney.

The GOP Primary has been hectic and has provided us with three separate candidates winning primaries and a fourth is consistently putting a scare in open primaries and caucuses. With the Santorum Trifecta of the past week, Ron Paul came close to getting off the schnide in Maine, Newt Gingrich campaigning hard in Super Tuesday states, and the Mitt Romney money machine we could have a shot at something special.

For the first time since 1976 the Republican Party could have a brokered convention because not one candidate will have the necessary majority to win on the first ballot. Now states decide how many ballots have to occur before a delegate is free to vote for other candidates. This typically lasts until the third ballot. This could open up the opportunity to draft someone new into the field.

I'm going to borrow a couple of phrases here from Rush Limbaugh and Sarah Palin. If you are unsatisfied with the current group of candidates and you don't like their odds against President Obama rage against the machine. Annoy the establishment and keep the process going all the way until Tampa.

We found out last year that Operation Chaos may have helped Obama. The longer the primary drew out the better prepared these candidates were for the general election. Why not try this strategy this time through? What can we lose by trying this? Maybe we'll have to get by with the field that hasn't inspired us. Or maybe we can draw a new face into the fray that inspires the base the way George Bush did instead of the way John McCain did.

Just remember the old adage about getting everything you want.

Romney Has Lost Aura of Inevitability

We were told that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney had too much money. He had been running non-stop for six years. He has the organization. He appeals to the center and that this time he really did believe what he was saying. The media tried to force feed the Republicans Mitt Romney and so far the unbeatable Romney is looking more Titanic than Mayflower.

This week Governor Romney found out he didn't really win Iowa as he initially believed. He went from a historic opening round knock out to a second place finish behind former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum after all the votes were officially tallied.

He then had two debates this week that were no where near his usual polished and rehearsed self. He reverted back to 2007/2008 Mitt. Uncomfortable under attack. We've seen that in his answers regarding his tax record being released. He has the last three "anti-Romneys" going after him the way spectators expected Governor Pawlenty, and the previous "anti-Romneys" to go after him. The attacks on Romney are coming out quicker than Governor Perry shoots coyotes.

Even the highlight of Romney's week the endorsement from former ambassador and former Utah Governor John Huntsman was marred by Huntsman effectively calling Romney a "A Perfectly Lubricated Weather Vane On The Important Issues Of The Day." He certainly did not give the glowing testament to Romney the way Perry spoke of Gingrich like a shepard bringing a sheep back into the flock.

Now we sit here today, on the South Carolina Primary. The first in the south. Gingrich appears to have more last second momentum than Santorum did in the moments preceding the Iowa Caucus. He could well run away with South Carolina. We will have to see if he can translate the victory in South Carolina into momentum going into Florida. He'll have ten days to chip into a remarkable Romney lead in the Sunshine State.

Mitt Romney will very likely be heading into the January 31st primary with an unremarkable 1-2 record. The best he can hope for is a split in the first four states. Many pundits and analysts had him losing Iowa and that was it. We are looking at a long primary season my friends. Three of the four remaining candidates will have won a primary. This has all the making of a knockdown, drag out fight. This time every primary and caucus will count.

Fox News Double Standard With Governor Palin

In early March the now embattled News Corp, which owns Fox News, suspended the contracts of contributors Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich as they considered runs for the Presidency. This move was largely received as good move for the journalistic integrity of the network. This way the network would not appear to be favoring some candidates and not others.

So why has News Corp not suspended the contract of former Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin?

Governor Palin has made it clear that she does not know whether or not she will seek the Republican nomination in the upcoming Presidential primaries. Governor Huckabee made it clear he would not and was able to continue working for the network. Either the network knows and will not tell us or is continuing to give Governor Palin free press as a sign of contributing to her campaign.

Fox included Palin in it's newest round of Republican polling for the nomination. The governor tied with current member of the House of Representatives Ron Paul with 9%. Either Fox knows Governor Palin will run and has allowed her to maintain her role in a clear case of favoritism and bias, she has not informed them (which should still result in suspension), or they are skewing polling data by including a candidate who they know is not running.

Governor Palin should be expected to follow the same guidelines as other contributors. Either Governor Palin should let her plans be known or she should be suspended by News Corp.

Surprises of the Second GOP Debate

The CNN/WMUR debateon Monday was full of moments that made me sit up and take notice of a field I view as a lot stronger than other pundits have stated.

The results of the second debate were a mixed bag.  A few candidates were impressive, a few disappointing, and the moderator was down right dreadful.

Results:


1) Governor Mitt Romney - While he has experienced great pain in media over the past two weeks he showed that he isn't going through the Sophomore Slump.  Romney conducted himself well during the debate and is still playing keep away from his field of challengers.  Those watching the debate were expecting challengers to go after the front-runner but all of them backed away.  Instead of making Mitt discuss his policy on healthcare they all let him handle it.  He came in the leader of the pack and no one did anything to stop him.  Thus Romney for staying on top and gaffe free wins the second debate.

2) Rep. Michele Bachmann - In her first ever presidential debate I was completely taken aback by the composure and posture of Bachmann.  She has fully stepped out of the shadow of former Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin and has become her own candidate.  My only concerns from Bachmann at the debate were she used a couple of applause lines from her Tea Party days at a formal debate, and she announced her candidacy during a round of questions.  Other than these two flaws in decorum for debating she has fully emerged as a serious and viable candidate.

3) Speaker Newt Gingrich - After suffering horrible setbacks in terms of his staff and his confusing campaign scheduling Newt came out firing.  He was in rare 1980-1990 form as he took on the debate format, moderator, and how he answered forcefully and with conviction.  He showed the disdain for how government operates that made him so popularly within the GOP.  After what seemed to be a week in which Newt's campaign had fallen apart just as everyone predicted the veteran of the Clinton Era showed why you can never count the old dog out.

4) Herman Cain - The Atlanta businessman falls to the fourth slot after unarguably winning the first debate.  Cain struggled to break out of the middle as the candidates above him had more buzz surrounding them.  He did not present lines or analogies that would resonate with voters.  After the train and caboose analogy he seemed to fall into a game that isn't his.  He played the role of politician after the initial round which is where he is out of his element.  His comments on Muslims and an opportunity for cabinet positions has hurt him as well.

5) Sen. Rick Santorum - Santorum bounced back to make a stronger performance than his first debate appearance.  He stayed composed and took control of debate topics when posed to the entire floor of candidates.  Extra face time like that can resonate with voters.  He continues to make strides as a national candidate and could be a force in Iowa with his strong pro-family values.  He hasn't been generating enough press but he can make some noise after this event.

6) Gov. Tim Pawlenty - My initial selection to be the candidate of the Republican Party was underwhelming at his second debate performance.  He is not garnering attention, and has backed off his tough talk about Mitt Romney's healthcare legislation on the national debate scale.  After coining the term "ObamneyCare" on a Sunday talk show he instantly backed away from the term and his attacks on Romney at the debate.  If an opponent has screwed up in your eyes you have to go for him.  Especially the front-runner.  Pawlenty dropped the ball and has fallen to the sixth spot.

7) Rep. Ron Paul - Now before everyone attacks my comment section with generic Ron Paul quotes and defenses read what I am about to say.  He was not performing at the same level as he did in the first debate.  He also fell back on crutch words like "umm" and "uhh" and several points during the debate.  He did not appear to be adequately prepared.  His delivery was flawed which is an important part of publicized debates.  You must be able to present yourself as well as your ideas.  Not too mention very few questions posed by members of the audience were directed at Paul which may be a bad thing in New Hampshire.

8) Mainstream Republicans - When a member of the audience posed a question about how the candidates would work with the regular everyday people who make up the Republican Party and not just the vocal fractions of it everyone posed this question offered defenses of the Tea Party and did not answer the question.  These candidates are running for the Republican nomination and it is about coalition building within the party.  Finding a common ground between factions.  This answer is what stunned and upset me the most during the CNN/WMUR debate.

9) John King/CNN - This debate was moderated horribly.  John King has to make up his mind if he will be a tough moderator and cut the candidate off or let them finish the question.  He constantly said "ok" during candidates answers hoping to cut them off but it just bothered the listener.  CNN also had the Twitter page going and did not use it as well as I had hoped.  Viewers posed questions but very rarely was it used.  CNN needs to find a new moderator and if it is going to showcase all of its technological aspects it must use them.

Mitch Daniels Says No

Another favored son of the Grand Ole Party has declined running for the Presidency of the United States in 2012.  Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana, has stated in an email last night that he will not be running.

The candidates who have stated they are not running are: Gov. Mike Huckabee, Gov. Chris Christie, Gov. Rick Perry, Rep. Paul Ryan, American business mogul Donald Trump, Sen. John Thune, Sen. Jim DeMint, Gov. Mitch Daniels, and Sen. Marco Rubio and I'm sure there are some I'm forgetting.

The list of those running or with exploratory committees is much shorter.  Those with intentions of running are: Fmr. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Gov. Gary Johnson, Sen. Rick Santorum, Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Rep. Ron Paul, American businessman Herman Cain, and Gov. Mitt Romney.

So who benefits from the new disappearance of another big name in the 2012 race?

I say this race comes down to two distinct groups. Pro-Romney and Anti-Romney.

There are those who look forward to the Romney candidacy and those who look at this potentiality as something to fear for the sake of the party.  With more and more established candidates walking away or committing gaffes it looks like the establishment could be stuck with a polarizing figure.

So after the establishment got on their hands and knees to try to get Mitch into the race it is safe to assume that Romney isn't going to get the kind of support Daniels would have gotten.  So these are establishment types who are looking to funnel resources into defeating Mitt Romney.

Who picks up support?

Newt Gingrich: Depending on how long Newt stays in the race he's the last establishment choice for the presidency.  Unfortunately Newt has appeared to have gotten out of the box slower than the so-called no name candidates.  No Republican has come to his defense since his attack on Paul Ryan's budget.  I don't see Newt sticking around long enough without further gaffes to gain much from the Mitch Daniels exit.

Gary Johnson: The little known governor continues to poll poorly.  The lone bump I see from the Daniels exit in his campaign is the social issues truce.  Johnson as one of the two libertarian minded candidates stands to benefit from the group of candidates who ignore social issues going from three down to two.

Rick Santorum: The former Pennsylvania Senator is an established former politician but is a hard core social conservative.  He may get a slight bump with the drop of an established candidate.  This will likely be cancelled out by the bumps to other candidates.

Ron Paul: The better known of the libertarian candidates stands to get a better increase than his counterpart Gary Johnson because he has better notoriety.  However the establishment money and the anti-Romney brigade aren't libertarians or libertarian-leaning so look for a better increase than the above candidates but no great.  Probably within the margin of error.

Herman Cain: The prominent Georgia businessman announced his candidacy yesterday and has been surging in the polls since his dominant performance in the first GOP Debate where he was largely viewed as the overwhelming victor.  Cain stands to benefit for those who looking for the strongest public speaker and can dominate a stage.  He won't get the establishment money but he will get some anti-Romney money because he's a candidate who continues to gain serious consideration.  He was the strongest speaker at the May 5th debate and could cost the next guy a good deal of funding.

Tim Pawlenty: T-Paw will formally announce on Monday.  He has been stated time and time again as the anti-Romney candidate.  He has an excellent record as governor (like Daniels), and the anti-Romney backers will look closer at Pawlenty because he has the best record of those viewed with a legitimate chance to win the election (at least according to George Will).  He could in the foreseeable future benefit the most from these backers.  However Cain may see an equal raise in his numbers because of how Cain overshadowed Pawlenty in the first debate.

This of course is all tentative on whether or not a big name comes out of the woodwork.  There's always a dark horse.  However, this dark horse may be stuck at the stable until 2016.

Thanks to The Daily Caller and Alexis Levinson for the original article.