Yesterday, American businessman and Republican Presidential candidate Herman Cain announced that he was suspending his campaign to seek the Republican nomination. His campaign had been mercilessly attacked by the website POLITICO (which has subsequently experienced far less traffic as they have been exposed as left-wing) and members of the media regarding his alleged sexual harassment. Ginger White also claimed to have had a thirteen year affair with the former CEO.
Herman Cain had been a Tea Party favorite known for his 9-9-9 Plan and his extraordinary ability as an orator. Having seen the damage these allegations had done to his campaign he elected to move aside. He did state that he will be endorsing a candidate soon which I expect to be Speaker Gingrich.
Out of every negative aspect of this Republican Campaign there must be a bright spot. As the businessman steps aside his support must go somewhere. Based on the actions of the candidate and current polling data we can safely assume where this support will be going.
Based on the debate performances and public statements of Herman Cain that his vocal support will go to the fellow Georgian Newt Gingrich. The two have been very complimentary of one another even while going after their rivals. There support for one another trickles down to their supporters. In a recent Quinnipiac Poll the majority of Cain supporters move to the former Speaker. The Right's ideas man seems to be the logical choice to gain the support of Cain's remaining supporters.
Should Gingrich receive the majority of Cain's support. This could put the Gingrich surge further ahead of Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Nationally Newt has 26.6% of the support according to the Real Clear Politics Average of polls. The most recent poll done had Gingrich as high as 38%, 21 points over Romney, and has won the last five straight national polls. This could put him at Rick Perry levels before the Texas Governor began speaking.
This works on the state level as well. Newt has a firm hold in Iowa being the only candidate polling over 20% consistently. Cain still had about 12% left in Iowa those followers will undoubtedly move Gingrich farther away from the pack. He currently holds a 10% lead in the first in the Nation caucus.
In New Hampshire Newt has moved up quickly on Romney. During the 2008 primary Romney had a similar lead and it began to crumble away as an alternative comes around. Speaker Gingrich has already earned the endorsement of leading New Hampshire newspaper the Manchester Union Leader. The paper's editorial page has been ruthless toward the former Massachusetts Governor. While Cain was only polling in the single digits it is important to mention that Gingrich has started his run on Romney much earlier than Senator John McCain did.
Barring a Governor Perry style collapse Speaker Gingrich will more than likely become the Republican nominee.
Showing posts with label Herman Cain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Herman Cain. Show all posts
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Newt Gingrich Surging To Front Likely to Stay
The steady methodical march of Newt Gingrich has placed him squarely in third place according to the Real Clear Politics average of national polls. Speaker Gingrich has climbed from the single digits into contention following the burnouts of flavors of the month, Representative Michele Bachmann, Governor Rick Perry, and now potentially businessman Herman Cain.
Newt has managed all this without going negative. Strictly adhering to President Reagan's 11th Commandment. He has gone after the media and the moderators for setting up the GOP candidates for in-fighting in an effort to expose weaknesses and allow for easier attack ads to be made by President Obama and the left-wing media machine.
The rise of Newt Gingrich can be attributed to his strong repeat debate performances. Myself and others have consistently viewed Speaker Gingrich as the most intelligent and solutions-oriented candidate on the stage. His climb has been steady and has not exploded to the front of the race only to fade into the darkness as Rep. Bachmann and Gov. Perry have done. He has not been brought to front-runner status by the falling of another individual to be the "anti-Romney" candidate as Herman Cain ascended.
Newt is not the "anti-Romney" candidate he is the Newt Gingrich candidate. He has built a campaign on being himself not from being a different human being than Mitt Romney. That is where other candidates have gone wrong. They have wanted to be seen as someone who is not Mitt Romney rather than themselves. This is the reason why other candidates have faded and Speaker Gingrich will not. There are three fields of people in this race for the GOP Nomination: Mitt Romney, the "anti-Romneys," and Newt Gingrich.
Newt appears to be holding the best hand coming down the stretch. There used to be three men at the high-rollers table: Governor Romney, Herman Cain, and Newt. I understand many conservatives and Republicans are standing behind Cain through these troubles as they view him being "Thomas'd" (If someone can invent being Bork'd I can invent Thomasing). Cain may be looking at a slight readjustment in his poll numbers leaving more voters for Newt to gain.
The final thing working in Newt's favor is that he has demanded the President meet him for Lincoln-Douglas style debates. Having seen "The Professor" Newt Gingrich debate at every single televised debate there is no way that President Obama can hang with Speaker Gingrich for three hours. The Republican primary voters are coming around to Speaker Gingrich where they may have found a permanent home.
Newt has managed all this without going negative. Strictly adhering to President Reagan's 11th Commandment. He has gone after the media and the moderators for setting up the GOP candidates for in-fighting in an effort to expose weaknesses and allow for easier attack ads to be made by President Obama and the left-wing media machine.
The rise of Newt Gingrich can be attributed to his strong repeat debate performances. Myself and others have consistently viewed Speaker Gingrich as the most intelligent and solutions-oriented candidate on the stage. His climb has been steady and has not exploded to the front of the race only to fade into the darkness as Rep. Bachmann and Gov. Perry have done. He has not been brought to front-runner status by the falling of another individual to be the "anti-Romney" candidate as Herman Cain ascended.
Newt is not the "anti-Romney" candidate he is the Newt Gingrich candidate. He has built a campaign on being himself not from being a different human being than Mitt Romney. That is where other candidates have gone wrong. They have wanted to be seen as someone who is not Mitt Romney rather than themselves. This is the reason why other candidates have faded and Speaker Gingrich will not. There are three fields of people in this race for the GOP Nomination: Mitt Romney, the "anti-Romneys," and Newt Gingrich.
Newt appears to be holding the best hand coming down the stretch. There used to be three men at the high-rollers table: Governor Romney, Herman Cain, and Newt. I understand many conservatives and Republicans are standing behind Cain through these troubles as they view him being "Thomas'd" (If someone can invent being Bork'd I can invent Thomasing). Cain may be looking at a slight readjustment in his poll numbers leaving more voters for Newt to gain.
The final thing working in Newt's favor is that he has demanded the President meet him for Lincoln-Douglas style debates. Having seen "The Professor" Newt Gingrich debate at every single televised debate there is no way that President Obama can hang with Speaker Gingrich for three hours. The Republican primary voters are coming around to Speaker Gingrich where they may have found a permanent home.
Monday, July 18, 2011
Where Herman Cain Lost Me
American businessman and Republican candidate for the Presidency Herman Cain has officially lost me as a potential supporter in the 2012 race. I left the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) having loved the candidate. I came in not knowing who Herman Cain was and left with him in my top three choices for the Presidency.
I loved Herman Cain so much I started my first ever Tea Party speech with the same quote he started his CPAC speech with. The appeal of a businessman as the Chief Executive is always very great for me. Which is why it is so difficult for me to withdraw my support of Mr. Cain because of his comments toward Islam, Muslims, and the idea of Mosques in the United States.
Mr. Cain consistently brings up his upbringing in the Jim Crow South and how the idea of racial discrimination caused him great difficulty in life. Then why would Cain then place the same intolerance toward Muslims and Islam?
As much as Herman Cain preaches about his love of the United States Constitution he hasn't seemed to have read a lot of it. For instance Herman Cain has spoken about his reluctance to appoint a Muslim into his cabinet and has stated that a test would have to be administered to prove loyalty to the United States and not Islam which violates United States Constitution Article VI: "...but no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States."
Now when discussing the new mosque to be built in Tennessee Cain stated that people should have the right to ban mosques from there town. This of course is in violation of the very religious freedom that led the settlers to come to America in the first place, and in violation of the First Amendment to the Constitution: "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof..."
Mr. Cain's statements are hurtful and ignorant of Islam. Putting an entire religion into a category because of a few radicals is the very stereotyping Cain was against in the Jim Crow South.
It's a shame a man with such great problem-solving skills and such an adamant supporter of the FairTax has had to say these things. We are at war with Islamic Extremists not all Muslims. The dialogue of hate must be removed from his platform.
I loved Herman Cain so much I started my first ever Tea Party speech with the same quote he started his CPAC speech with. The appeal of a businessman as the Chief Executive is always very great for me. Which is why it is so difficult for me to withdraw my support of Mr. Cain because of his comments toward Islam, Muslims, and the idea of Mosques in the United States.
Mr. Cain consistently brings up his upbringing in the Jim Crow South and how the idea of racial discrimination caused him great difficulty in life. Then why would Cain then place the same intolerance toward Muslims and Islam?
As much as Herman Cain preaches about his love of the United States Constitution he hasn't seemed to have read a lot of it. For instance Herman Cain has spoken about his reluctance to appoint a Muslim into his cabinet and has stated that a test would have to be administered to prove loyalty to the United States and not Islam which violates United States Constitution Article VI: "...but no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States."
Now when discussing the new mosque to be built in Tennessee Cain stated that people should have the right to ban mosques from there town. This of course is in violation of the very religious freedom that led the settlers to come to America in the first place, and in violation of the First Amendment to the Constitution: "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof..."
Mr. Cain's statements are hurtful and ignorant of Islam. Putting an entire religion into a category because of a few radicals is the very stereotyping Cain was against in the Jim Crow South.
It's a shame a man with such great problem-solving skills and such an adamant supporter of the FairTax has had to say these things. We are at war with Islamic Extremists not all Muslims. The dialogue of hate must be removed from his platform.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Surprises of the Second GOP Debate
The CNN/WMUR debateon Monday was full of moments that made me sit up and take notice of a field I view as a lot stronger than other pundits have stated.
The results of the second debate were a mixed bag. A few candidates were impressive, a few disappointing, and the moderator was down right dreadful.
Results:
1) Governor Mitt Romney - While he has experienced great pain in media over the past two weeks he showed that he isn't going through the Sophomore Slump. Romney conducted himself well during the debate and is still playing keep away from his field of challengers. Those watching the debate were expecting challengers to go after the front-runner but all of them backed away. Instead of making Mitt discuss his policy on healthcare they all let him handle it. He came in the leader of the pack and no one did anything to stop him. Thus Romney for staying on top and gaffe free wins the second debate.
2) Rep. Michele Bachmann - In her first ever presidential debate I was completely taken aback by the composure and posture of Bachmann. She has fully stepped out of the shadow of former Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin and has become her own candidate. My only concerns from Bachmann at the debate were she used a couple of applause lines from her Tea Party days at a formal debate, and she announced her candidacy during a round of questions. Other than these two flaws in decorum for debating she has fully emerged as a serious and viable candidate.
3) Speaker Newt Gingrich - After suffering horrible setbacks in terms of his staff and his confusing campaign scheduling Newt came out firing. He was in rare 1980-1990 form as he took on the debate format, moderator, and how he answered forcefully and with conviction. He showed the disdain for how government operates that made him so popularly within the GOP. After what seemed to be a week in which Newt's campaign had fallen apart just as everyone predicted the veteran of the Clinton Era showed why you can never count the old dog out.
4) Herman Cain - The Atlanta businessman falls to the fourth slot after unarguably winning the first debate. Cain struggled to break out of the middle as the candidates above him had more buzz surrounding them. He did not present lines or analogies that would resonate with voters. After the train and caboose analogy he seemed to fall into a game that isn't his. He played the role of politician after the initial round which is where he is out of his element. His comments on Muslims and an opportunity for cabinet positions has hurt him as well.
5) Sen. Rick Santorum - Santorum bounced back to make a stronger performance than his first debate appearance. He stayed composed and took control of debate topics when posed to the entire floor of candidates. Extra face time like that can resonate with voters. He continues to make strides as a national candidate and could be a force in Iowa with his strong pro-family values. He hasn't been generating enough press but he can make some noise after this event.
6) Gov. Tim Pawlenty - My initial selection to be the candidate of the Republican Party was underwhelming at his second debate performance. He is not garnering attention, and has backed off his tough talk about Mitt Romney's healthcare legislation on the national debate scale. After coining the term "ObamneyCare" on a Sunday talk show he instantly backed away from the term and his attacks on Romney at the debate. If an opponent has screwed up in your eyes you have to go for him. Especially the front-runner. Pawlenty dropped the ball and has fallen to the sixth spot.
7) Rep. Ron Paul - Now before everyone attacks my comment section with generic Ron Paul quotes and defenses read what I am about to say. He was not performing at the same level as he did in the first debate. He also fell back on crutch words like "umm" and "uhh" and several points during the debate. He did not appear to be adequately prepared. His delivery was flawed which is an important part of publicized debates. You must be able to present yourself as well as your ideas. Not too mention very few questions posed by members of the audience were directed at Paul which may be a bad thing in New Hampshire.
8) Mainstream Republicans - When a member of the audience posed a question about how the candidates would work with the regular everyday people who make up the Republican Party and not just the vocal fractions of it everyone posed this question offered defenses of the Tea Party and did not answer the question. These candidates are running for the Republican nomination and it is about coalition building within the party. Finding a common ground between factions. This answer is what stunned and upset me the most during the CNN/WMUR debate.
9) John King/CNN - This debate was moderated horribly. John King has to make up his mind if he will be a tough moderator and cut the candidate off or let them finish the question. He constantly said "ok" during candidates answers hoping to cut them off but it just bothered the listener. CNN also had the Twitter page going and did not use it as well as I had hoped. Viewers posed questions but very rarely was it used. CNN needs to find a new moderator and if it is going to showcase all of its technological aspects it must use them.
The results of the second debate were a mixed bag. A few candidates were impressive, a few disappointing, and the moderator was down right dreadful.
Results:
1) Governor Mitt Romney - While he has experienced great pain in media over the past two weeks he showed that he isn't going through the Sophomore Slump. Romney conducted himself well during the debate and is still playing keep away from his field of challengers. Those watching the debate were expecting challengers to go after the front-runner but all of them backed away. Instead of making Mitt discuss his policy on healthcare they all let him handle it. He came in the leader of the pack and no one did anything to stop him. Thus Romney for staying on top and gaffe free wins the second debate.
2) Rep. Michele Bachmann - In her first ever presidential debate I was completely taken aback by the composure and posture of Bachmann. She has fully stepped out of the shadow of former Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin and has become her own candidate. My only concerns from Bachmann at the debate were she used a couple of applause lines from her Tea Party days at a formal debate, and she announced her candidacy during a round of questions. Other than these two flaws in decorum for debating she has fully emerged as a serious and viable candidate.
3) Speaker Newt Gingrich - After suffering horrible setbacks in terms of his staff and his confusing campaign scheduling Newt came out firing. He was in rare 1980-1990 form as he took on the debate format, moderator, and how he answered forcefully and with conviction. He showed the disdain for how government operates that made him so popularly within the GOP. After what seemed to be a week in which Newt's campaign had fallen apart just as everyone predicted the veteran of the Clinton Era showed why you can never count the old dog out.
4) Herman Cain - The Atlanta businessman falls to the fourth slot after unarguably winning the first debate. Cain struggled to break out of the middle as the candidates above him had more buzz surrounding them. He did not present lines or analogies that would resonate with voters. After the train and caboose analogy he seemed to fall into a game that isn't his. He played the role of politician after the initial round which is where he is out of his element. His comments on Muslims and an opportunity for cabinet positions has hurt him as well.
5) Sen. Rick Santorum - Santorum bounced back to make a stronger performance than his first debate appearance. He stayed composed and took control of debate topics when posed to the entire floor of candidates. Extra face time like that can resonate with voters. He continues to make strides as a national candidate and could be a force in Iowa with his strong pro-family values. He hasn't been generating enough press but he can make some noise after this event.
6) Gov. Tim Pawlenty - My initial selection to be the candidate of the Republican Party was underwhelming at his second debate performance. He is not garnering attention, and has backed off his tough talk about Mitt Romney's healthcare legislation on the national debate scale. After coining the term "ObamneyCare" on a Sunday talk show he instantly backed away from the term and his attacks on Romney at the debate. If an opponent has screwed up in your eyes you have to go for him. Especially the front-runner. Pawlenty dropped the ball and has fallen to the sixth spot.
7) Rep. Ron Paul - Now before everyone attacks my comment section with generic Ron Paul quotes and defenses read what I am about to say. He was not performing at the same level as he did in the first debate. He also fell back on crutch words like "umm" and "uhh" and several points during the debate. He did not appear to be adequately prepared. His delivery was flawed which is an important part of publicized debates. You must be able to present yourself as well as your ideas. Not too mention very few questions posed by members of the audience were directed at Paul which may be a bad thing in New Hampshire.
8) Mainstream Republicans - When a member of the audience posed a question about how the candidates would work with the regular everyday people who make up the Republican Party and not just the vocal fractions of it everyone posed this question offered defenses of the Tea Party and did not answer the question. These candidates are running for the Republican nomination and it is about coalition building within the party. Finding a common ground between factions. This answer is what stunned and upset me the most during the CNN/WMUR debate.
9) John King/CNN - This debate was moderated horribly. John King has to make up his mind if he will be a tough moderator and cut the candidate off or let them finish the question. He constantly said "ok" during candidates answers hoping to cut them off but it just bothered the listener. CNN also had the Twitter page going and did not use it as well as I had hoped. Viewers posed questions but very rarely was it used. CNN needs to find a new moderator and if it is going to showcase all of its technological aspects it must use them.
Friday, June 3, 2011
Bad Numbers For Obama Administration
A recovery not so much.
Today's gloomy jobs report brought unemployment just back north of 9%. The projected gain in jobs was supposed to be about 150,000 whereas the real number actually gained was closer to 54,000 making unemployment 9.1%. A number we all know to be 1.1% higher than the maximum number predicted by the Obama Administration after the passage of the stimulus package.
The Dow Jones is currently concluding it's fifth straight week of loses. A number that would make the Washington Wizards jealous.
Domestic policy more so than anything else shapes Presidential elections. The economy is first and foremost in everyone's minds.
An economy stuck in a rut will lead to short term benefits that could become long term benefits for Republican contenders in 2012.
The candidates that can lead the way with this bump would be: Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, and Gary Johnson. All three men have had fantastic successes in the private sector.
Jon Huntsman has gained the support of major financial backers. This economic uncertainty will lead to further name recognition for Huntsman who is in severe need of it according to recent polls. The name recognition will build upon an already secure base of some of the established Republican guard. This could lead to lasting benefits for the current long shot. Huntsman will now stand a better chance if he can seize the moment.
The current front-runner and Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will be able to capitalize on this moment with his private sector experience. When the message is solely based on job creation he can attempt to move past RomneyCare. If he can successfully move to the topic of job creation through typical conservative ideals (lower taxes, less regulation, etc.). Romney can use this to fend off a potential bid by New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin (even though I believe she will not run).
A man with rising name recognition and with high positivity scores can keep the momentum going. That man is Herman Cain. Cain made a name for himself solely on his private sector accomplishments. His view on the private sector can translate into the public sector according to the late Jack Kemp whom Cain advised in 1996. This is assuredly put Cain in the spotlight again and when people get to know Herman Cain they love Herman Cain as evident by the Gallup Positivity Polls.
The last former businessman in the field is former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson. Johnson has less name recognition than I do and has garnered as much national appeal. This is his now or never moment. Of course he will still lose the majority of libertarian-minded Republicans to Dr. Paul but he will attempt to steal some of the more economically minded ones from the doctor. If he doesn't look better after this economic news there will be little hope for the mountain climber.
Today's gloomy jobs report brought unemployment just back north of 9%. The projected gain in jobs was supposed to be about 150,000 whereas the real number actually gained was closer to 54,000 making unemployment 9.1%. A number we all know to be 1.1% higher than the maximum number predicted by the Obama Administration after the passage of the stimulus package.
The Dow Jones is currently concluding it's fifth straight week of loses. A number that would make the Washington Wizards jealous.
Domestic policy more so than anything else shapes Presidential elections. The economy is first and foremost in everyone's minds.
An economy stuck in a rut will lead to short term benefits that could become long term benefits for Republican contenders in 2012.
The candidates that can lead the way with this bump would be: Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, and Gary Johnson. All three men have had fantastic successes in the private sector.
Jon Huntsman has gained the support of major financial backers. This economic uncertainty will lead to further name recognition for Huntsman who is in severe need of it according to recent polls. The name recognition will build upon an already secure base of some of the established Republican guard. This could lead to lasting benefits for the current long shot. Huntsman will now stand a better chance if he can seize the moment.
The current front-runner and Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will be able to capitalize on this moment with his private sector experience. When the message is solely based on job creation he can attempt to move past RomneyCare. If he can successfully move to the topic of job creation through typical conservative ideals (lower taxes, less regulation, etc.). Romney can use this to fend off a potential bid by New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin (even though I believe she will not run).
A man with rising name recognition and with high positivity scores can keep the momentum going. That man is Herman Cain. Cain made a name for himself solely on his private sector accomplishments. His view on the private sector can translate into the public sector according to the late Jack Kemp whom Cain advised in 1996. This is assuredly put Cain in the spotlight again and when people get to know Herman Cain they love Herman Cain as evident by the Gallup Positivity Polls.
The last former businessman in the field is former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson. Johnson has less name recognition than I do and has garnered as much national appeal. This is his now or never moment. Of course he will still lose the majority of libertarian-minded Republicans to Dr. Paul but he will attempt to steal some of the more economically minded ones from the doctor. If he doesn't look better after this economic news there will be little hope for the mountain climber.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Mitch Daniels Says No
Another favored son of the Grand Ole Party has declined running for the Presidency of the United States in 2012. Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana, has stated in an email last night that he will not be running.
The candidates who have stated they are not running are: Gov. Mike Huckabee, Gov. Chris Christie, Gov. Rick Perry, Rep. Paul Ryan, American business mogul Donald Trump, Sen. John Thune, Sen. Jim DeMint, Gov. Mitch Daniels, and Sen. Marco Rubio and I'm sure there are some I'm forgetting.
The list of those running or with exploratory committees is much shorter. Those with intentions of running are: Fmr. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Gov. Gary Johnson, Sen. Rick Santorum, Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Rep. Ron Paul, American businessman Herman Cain, and Gov. Mitt Romney.
So who benefits from the new disappearance of another big name in the 2012 race?
I say this race comes down to two distinct groups. Pro-Romney and Anti-Romney.
There are those who look forward to the Romney candidacy and those who look at this potentiality as something to fear for the sake of the party. With more and more established candidates walking away or committing gaffes it looks like the establishment could be stuck with a polarizing figure.
So after the establishment got on their hands and knees to try to get Mitch into the race it is safe to assume that Romney isn't going to get the kind of support Daniels would have gotten. So these are establishment types who are looking to funnel resources into defeating Mitt Romney.
Who picks up support?
Newt Gingrich: Depending on how long Newt stays in the race he's the last establishment choice for the presidency. Unfortunately Newt has appeared to have gotten out of the box slower than the so-called no name candidates. No Republican has come to his defense since his attack on Paul Ryan's budget. I don't see Newt sticking around long enough without further gaffes to gain much from the Mitch Daniels exit.
Gary Johnson: The little known governor continues to poll poorly. The lone bump I see from the Daniels exit in his campaign is the social issues truce. Johnson as one of the two libertarian minded candidates stands to benefit from the group of candidates who ignore social issues going from three down to two.
Rick Santorum: The former Pennsylvania Senator is an established former politician but is a hard core social conservative. He may get a slight bump with the drop of an established candidate. This will likely be cancelled out by the bumps to other candidates.
Ron Paul: The better known of the libertarian candidates stands to get a better increase than his counterpart Gary Johnson because he has better notoriety. However the establishment money and the anti-Romney brigade aren't libertarians or libertarian-leaning so look for a better increase than the above candidates but no great. Probably within the margin of error.
Herman Cain: The prominent Georgia businessman announced his candidacy yesterday and has been surging in the polls since his dominant performance in the first GOP Debate where he was largely viewed as the overwhelming victor. Cain stands to benefit for those who looking for the strongest public speaker and can dominate a stage. He won't get the establishment money but he will get some anti-Romney money because he's a candidate who continues to gain serious consideration. He was the strongest speaker at the May 5th debate and could cost the next guy a good deal of funding.
Tim Pawlenty: T-Paw will formally announce on Monday. He has been stated time and time again as the anti-Romney candidate. He has an excellent record as governor (like Daniels), and the anti-Romney backers will look closer at Pawlenty because he has the best record of those viewed with a legitimate chance to win the election (at least according to George Will). He could in the foreseeable future benefit the most from these backers. However Cain may see an equal raise in his numbers because of how Cain overshadowed Pawlenty in the first debate.
This of course is all tentative on whether or not a big name comes out of the woodwork. There's always a dark horse. However, this dark horse may be stuck at the stable until 2016.
Thanks to The Daily Caller and Alexis Levinson for the original article.
The candidates who have stated they are not running are: Gov. Mike Huckabee, Gov. Chris Christie, Gov. Rick Perry, Rep. Paul Ryan, American business mogul Donald Trump, Sen. John Thune, Sen. Jim DeMint, Gov. Mitch Daniels, and Sen. Marco Rubio and I'm sure there are some I'm forgetting.
The list of those running or with exploratory committees is much shorter. Those with intentions of running are: Fmr. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Gov. Gary Johnson, Sen. Rick Santorum, Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Rep. Ron Paul, American businessman Herman Cain, and Gov. Mitt Romney.
So who benefits from the new disappearance of another big name in the 2012 race?
I say this race comes down to two distinct groups. Pro-Romney and Anti-Romney.
There are those who look forward to the Romney candidacy and those who look at this potentiality as something to fear for the sake of the party. With more and more established candidates walking away or committing gaffes it looks like the establishment could be stuck with a polarizing figure.
So after the establishment got on their hands and knees to try to get Mitch into the race it is safe to assume that Romney isn't going to get the kind of support Daniels would have gotten. So these are establishment types who are looking to funnel resources into defeating Mitt Romney.
Who picks up support?
Newt Gingrich: Depending on how long Newt stays in the race he's the last establishment choice for the presidency. Unfortunately Newt has appeared to have gotten out of the box slower than the so-called no name candidates. No Republican has come to his defense since his attack on Paul Ryan's budget. I don't see Newt sticking around long enough without further gaffes to gain much from the Mitch Daniels exit.
Gary Johnson: The little known governor continues to poll poorly. The lone bump I see from the Daniels exit in his campaign is the social issues truce. Johnson as one of the two libertarian minded candidates stands to benefit from the group of candidates who ignore social issues going from three down to two.
Rick Santorum: The former Pennsylvania Senator is an established former politician but is a hard core social conservative. He may get a slight bump with the drop of an established candidate. This will likely be cancelled out by the bumps to other candidates.
Ron Paul: The better known of the libertarian candidates stands to get a better increase than his counterpart Gary Johnson because he has better notoriety. However the establishment money and the anti-Romney brigade aren't libertarians or libertarian-leaning so look for a better increase than the above candidates but no great. Probably within the margin of error.
Herman Cain: The prominent Georgia businessman announced his candidacy yesterday and has been surging in the polls since his dominant performance in the first GOP Debate where he was largely viewed as the overwhelming victor. Cain stands to benefit for those who looking for the strongest public speaker and can dominate a stage. He won't get the establishment money but he will get some anti-Romney money because he's a candidate who continues to gain serious consideration. He was the strongest speaker at the May 5th debate and could cost the next guy a good deal of funding.
Tim Pawlenty: T-Paw will formally announce on Monday. He has been stated time and time again as the anti-Romney candidate. He has an excellent record as governor (like Daniels), and the anti-Romney backers will look closer at Pawlenty because he has the best record of those viewed with a legitimate chance to win the election (at least according to George Will). He could in the foreseeable future benefit the most from these backers. However Cain may see an equal raise in his numbers because of how Cain overshadowed Pawlenty in the first debate.
This of course is all tentative on whether or not a big name comes out of the woodwork. There's always a dark horse. However, this dark horse may be stuck at the stable until 2016.
Thanks to The Daily Caller and Alexis Levinson for the original article.
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